Over the course of the 20th and 21st Centuries, a lot of jobs that used to require human labor have been turned over to robots. Factory jobs are going to robots. Mining jobs are going to robots. Fighter jet and spy plane pilot jobs are going to robots. Retail jobs are going to robots, with self checkouts and restaurants like Eatsa.
I used to believe, smugly, that programming was too complex and difficult to ever be taken over by robots. When I read an article by some business commentator that claimed programming jobs were going to be this generation’s equivalent of the high-wage factory jobs of the 1950s and 1960s, I scoffed. Until I actually did some of what passes for programming in industry.
It’s pretty much all been lamented before: modern programming in a corporate environment is mostly writing little bits of glue code to combine a bunch of libraries written by some distant genius. Mike Taylor’s version was the first version of this lament that I saw, back when I was still in school and under the impression that industry programming was at least a little bit like personal or school programming. But I’m not here to lament. I’m here to make a prophecy.
I find it extremely hard to believe that there’s no way to automate that last 10%. There has to be a tool that makes it possible for someone to drop in those repetitive little globs of boilerplate just the way they like, and get a web application out of it.
As a full-stack web developer, I also offer some advice on design, UX, and business needs. But I’m not a designer, a UX pundit, or an expert on the business needs. My degree is in computer science. My expertise is programming. But there’s damn little programming in the code I write, and nothing I’d call computer science. The main hurdle is the delicate little interconnections between these rickety, rigid frameworks, the brittle wooden bridges I have to cross by writing repetitive boilerplate. But, per hypothesis, there has to be a way to create a tool that automates that repetitive boilerplate. Without that, there’s no programming left in creating the sort of custom line of business app that I work on. You could get together a designer, a UX pundit, and an expert on the needs of the business, and have them use this tool to create whatever web app they want. There are actually already tools that are close to this. Squarespace. Drupal and Joomla. WordPress is a little closer to full-stack web development, but I see job ads for “Wordpress programmers” rather than “PHP programmers” or “Front end programmers”, which suggests to me that WordPress is a specialized tool. As I was writing this I discovered WebML, which already sounds pretty close to what I was envisioning.
Once I realized that, I saw how right Mr. or Ms. Business Commentator whose name I’ve forgotten was in his or her comparison of software developer jobs to factory jobs. Right now, tools like Squarespace and Joomla still have certain limits, and there’s cachet in having a custom web app, so everyone and their dog needs a full-stack web developer to make one for them. Trucking companies need web apps; banks need web apps; government agencies need web apps; churches need web apps; even the Amish probably have a full-stack web developer on their payroll to make an Amish web app for them. (Job perks include hot apple Brown Betty in the kitchen, bonuses paid in handmade furniture, and a company carriage for the commute.) But once this magical tool whose future existence I’ve postulated comes to pass, none of these people will need full-stack web developers. Except the Amish; they need someone who’s okay being in a building with electricity every day. But everyone else will just have business experts make the web app. This might be the product manager, or the head of the department that’s going to use the web app, or the lady down the hall who knows Excel and VBA really well and consequently always gets stuck doing everyone’s spreadsheets. But there’s no reason to bring a programmer into the company and pay them a bunch of money and have them learn the business requirements when you can just have someone who already knows the business requirements use the tool to build the web app.
This doesn’t mean that all programming jobs will suddenly disappear. There will still be programmers. You can’t have a business person build something with a prepackaged tool when you don’t have any business requirements and no one’s ever built anything like it before. Google-scale stuff isn’t going anywhere. Google-level programmers aren’t going anywhere. But people like this guy are going to lose their jobs, or they’ll be slotted in at a lower pay grade to build web apps with the new tools. Even people who aren’t like that guy, people who don’t obstinately hold it as a personal tenet that no one should know more advanced technical subjects like Big O and data structures and we should all just concentrate on understanding business requirements and spelling Dijkstra’s name right, will lose their jobs in droves. They’ll lose their jobs because they’ll have spent careers working on simple little full-stack web apps built on existing frameworks instead of on Google-scale stuff, and suddenly businesses won’t need that anymore, or at least they’ll be paying a lot less for it.
So how long do we, the generic full-stack web developers working on dinky little web apps, have before the apocalypse? My guess is no more than ten years. The tools are already getting there, and they keep advancing. With single-page apps and faster connections, users are already being trained to expect more lag in web apps, so the kind of performance tuning that an experienced developer does will become less relevant. And businesses would love to be able to fire a bunch of expensive programmers and squeeze a little more work out of the business people. They’d love to be able to stop stocking soda and Terra chips for us arrogant, overpriced keyboard jockeys.
A few questions
However, I’m going to try and preemptively address a few questions I can see people having about this prophecy.
Won’t programmers just switch to programming the tools?
Writing the tools will be the kind of Google-scale programming that will hang on after the Twilight of the Generic Full-Stack Web Devs. But for every former generic full-stack web dev who switches to working on tools, there will be at least ten who get shut out because of significantly lower demand for programmers, and probably another five who switch to using the new tools to do their own jobs at a significant pay cut just to stay employed. Companies in all industries needing to have their own custom web app and hiring a generic full-stack web dev to glue together some frameworks for them has created a supply of generic full-stack web devs that won’t be nearly as much in demand once business people can make the dinky custom business app.
Isn’t programming too complex and difficult to automate like you describe?
I hope if you’ve done the kind of generic full-stack web development I’m talking about here, you know that’s not true. The frameworks already do most of the work. Disorganization and the dismal state of web standards is the only thing holding us back from a single isomorphic client/server framework that lets us build monolithic web apps in a single language the way we used to build desktop apps. And with Node.js, client-side MVC frameworks, and Bootstrap, we keep getting closer to that one framework to find them all and in the DOM bind them.
There are other kinds of programming that I don’t foresee being automated so easily: hardware programming, big data, machine learning, cryptography, and of course the tools such as compilers, IDEs, frameworks, servers, and databases. Programming those things is complex and difficult, and programmers working on those things will continue to have lucrative careers. This prophecy will largely affect people not working in the tech industry, but working on web apps (and possibly mobile apps) in other industries.
Didn’t this already fail?
There have been various attempts to create tools that business people could use to make custom applications, e.g. CASE tools. Many failed. But one, COBOL, turned out to be one of the most successful programming languages of all time.
It’s possible that efforts to create the super tool I’m prophesying here will also fail. But I think modern day has one big thing that makes such a tool more likely to thrive: Google. Older tools were expensive proprietary things, and you had to read a gigantic manual to figure out how to use them. But nowadays, if you need help, you can Google for answers, or you can ask a question on a Stack Exchange site. And there will probably be blogs and tutorials and help guides for the tools, and maybe even public online documentation by the manufacturers, the way Oracle does with Java.
If you’re a busy business expert trying to make a web app, this makes a huge difference: instead of having to spend hours reading through a giant manual and days figuring out the best way to use what your tool gives you, you can just Google for an answer and copy it verbatim, like programmers do.
I’m a generic full-stack web developer and I believe in your prophecy. What should I do?
As a prophet of doom, I sadly don’t have any constructive suggestions for you, other than to consider where your career might go after this doom comes to pass.
If you enjoy the technical side of things, you can try to become an expert in one of those other areas of programming that won’t be wiped out in this apocalypse. If you find cryptography or machine learning too imposing, go for stuff like dev ops and database adminstration. Or if you’re more of a front end person and you like design or UX, you could head in that direction.
Alternately, if you like business requirements and management, like this guy, go full speed in that direction. I don’t, so I won’t be joining you.
What are you planning to do once the prophecy comes to pass?
Once my career in generic full-stack web development dries up, I’m going to take a few months to backpack around Europe and find myself. In a small Italian village on the Amalfi coast, I will rescue a stunningly beautiful woman from three drunken Sigma Chi boys on Spring Break from Penn State. The only daughter of the owner of a struggling trattoria, she will have the heart of poet and the sensitive wit of a Regina Spektor lyric. Our love will blossom like the last flowers of June, and after months of sexual tension and exquisite trattoria food, we will finally consummate our relationship. But the next morning, I’ll receive word that my beloved Albanian bulldog, Bullard, has died. Stricken with grief, I will weep tears of manly remorse, and rue that I was not at Bullard’s side in his final hours. I will return to the United States to further weep, and to visit his grave under the shade of a poplar tree in my parents’ backyard. But in the ashes of this tragedy a fire will kindle within me, and I’ll start a popular YouTube channel in which I talk about the wonders of Italy and Albanian bulldogs while wearing an oilskin duster in burnt sienna, a color that brings out my eyes. As my channel gains subscribers, I’ll start a companion blog and podcast and soon become a widely recognized blogger and YouTube celebrity.
So you see, I’ve got this all figured out. The end of generic full-stack web development will ultimately be a good thing for me. Maybe it can be a good thing for you too.